NBHC’s Final Rabi Crop Estimates for 2019-20

The rainfall during the months of June-September was at 10 per cent above average. Rainfall over the country as a whole during the SW monsoon season (June-September), which is the principal rainy season of the country, was normal (110 per cent of LPA). The 2019 northeast monsoon season (October-December) rainfall over the country as a whole was above normal (129 per cent of LPA). Live storage in 123 major reservoirs as on 21 May 2020 was 60.73 BCM as against 36.15 BCM on the same day last year (21 May 2019) and 37.58 BCM of normal (average of the last 10 years) storage. Current year’s storage is 168 per cent of last year’s storage and 162 per cent of last 10 year’s average storage.Unseasonal rains, thunderstorms and snowfall across certain pockets in the country in Feb- March had led todamage of standing Rabi crops- wheat, mustard and gram as over 60 per cent precipitation were concentrated in north-western and central India. In India, Rabi harvesting starts in March in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Maharashtra and in April in Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. The Government announcement of the lockdown came right in the middle of this rabi harvesting season. They did exempt farm activities from the lockdown but the shortage of labour and lack of transport facilities is expected to impact the rabi crop adversely. Keeping in consideration the large-scale post monsoon developments and the sowing reports from various parts of the country, NBHC Pvt. Ltd. has come up with its Final Rabi Crop Estimates for 2019-20.

In our first estimate (First Rabi Crop Estimates for 2019-20 – 11th February 2019) we had broadly concluded that in the year 2019-20, the production of total pulses and oilseeds are expected to decline by 2.22 per cent and 13.48 per cent over 2018-19. In the current assessment, the Pulses and oil seed have marginally pushed themselves further in the negative region with an expected decline of 4.58 per cent and 6.58 per cent over the last estimate.

Wheat production is expected to fall further by 3.12 per cent over last estimate as delayed harvesting has led to a fall in yield and further delays in procurement exposes the crop to untimely rains but would be stillhigher by 5.61 per cent over last year mainly because of increase MSP coupled with the surplus monsoon and post-monsoon rain in October boosted soil moisture levels. Rice production is expected to increase marginally by 3.17 per cent over last estimate amidstreports of higher yield in Telangana but would still be lower by 25.67 per cent over last year owing to marginal shift in farmer’s focus to pulses & wheat. Maize is expected to decline further by 2.17 per cent over last estimate leading to overall fall in production by 0.99 per cent over last year. Jowar production is expected to improved further by 2.62 per cent over last estimate leading to overall increase in production by about 23.57 per cent over last year.

Pulses production is projected to drop further by 4.58 per cent over last estimate, which is 2.22 per cent lower than last year’s production mainly due to 10.85 per cent drop in the gram production, which constitutes about 70 per cent of the total Rabi Pulses.Gram production is expected to decline further 4.87 per cent over the last estimate mainly due to fall in Madhya Pradesh as lot of area under gram was diverted for wheat cultivation. Urad, Masoor and Field Peaare also expected to decline by 2.00 per cent, 2.17 per cent and 5.00 per cent respectively over the last estimate.

Total oilseeds production is estimated to be 9.50 million MT, which is about 6.58 per cent lower than the last estimate mainly because off all in Mustard and groundnut production, leading to overall fall in production by 13.48 per cent over last year. Mustard and Groundnut production is expected to decline7.00 per cent and 5.00 per cent respectively over last estimate.

The table below shows the details of the final estimate for the 2019-20 Rabi crop:

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© National Bulk Handling Corporation (NBHC) 2020

Dr. Hanish Kumar Sinha
Deputy Vice President - Research & Development
National Bulk Handling Corporation Pvt. Ltd.