La Nina comes to an end, El Nino unlikely this year

The Bureau of Meteorology(BOM), Australia has announced the end of the 2020-21 La Niña. They stated that steady decline in La Niña indicators in the Pacific Ocean, with the La Niña/El Niño outlook now re-set to INACTIVE as El Niño–Southern Oscillation now is in a neutral phase. Climate modelling shows few signs of a second La Niña or El Niño development for the foreseeable future. The BoM declared last year La Nina on 29 September 2020, with spring and summer seeing above-average rainfall in most of northern and eastern Australia.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) in his press release dated April 1, 2020 states that moderate La Niña conditions are currently prevailing and there is a possibility of transition of La Niña conditions to ENSO neutral conditions during the forthcoming hot weather season (April- June, 2021).

The India Meteorological Department is expected to issue its formal first stage monsoon forecast in second week of April.

La Nina’s counterpart, El Nino, often brings widespread drought with it to the subcontinent.  Meteorologists say that a low probability of El Nino is certainly good news for the monsoon. The BOM said that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist till August, by when half the Indian monsoon period will have passed. Last week, another international forecast AccuWeather said that it expected a normal monsoon in India due to global meteorological factors.

This news will cheer farmers and policymakers as it raises prospects of another record harvest and will further enhance agricultural growth and boosts rural income and the demand.

Last year, India received 9% excess rainfall owing to La Nina conditions. It also saw a delayed monsoon withdrawal, which resulted in one of the wettest Augusts on recorded. It was the second consecutive years of excess rainfall (+10% in 2019 season)

Although the complex weather system depends on many other factors and neutral ENSO condition good Indian monsoon rains every time.

Comparison of the Oceanic Niño Index to Indian monsoon rainfall from 1950-2012. La Niña years are blue, neutral years are gray, and El Niño years are red.El Niño doesn’t always mean drought.

Meanwhile for the current hot weather season (April to June),above normal seasonal maximum temperatures are likely over most of the subdivisions of north, northwest and few subdivisions of east central India. However, below normal seasonal maximum temperatures are likely over most of the subdivisions of south peninsular India and few subdivisions of east, northeast and extreme north India.

Sources: Bureau of Meteorology(BOM), Australia; IMD India, NOAA USA and Economics Times